The good news for Republicans is that the Trump base in Michigan remains strong and energized—just look at the rallies. In 2016, Trump garnered 2,279,543 votes, which was 10,704 more than Hillary Clinton. That was a slim margin, but still enough to get 16 electoral votes in the winner-take-all Michigan race.
In 2020, Trump increased his vote total in Michigan to 2,649,852, a 16 percent increase, but lost to Biden by a whopping 154,188 votes. What happened? In 2018, the Democratic Party won the races for governor, attorney general, and secretary of state, who set out to execute the party’s playbook. According to the Center for American Progress, these initiatives were championed by the Dems:
- Increasing voter registration and turnout and closing the racial gap in voter participation by implementing numerous voting and registration options
- Ending partisan gerrymandering through an independent redistricting commission
- Promoting citizen-initiated ballot measures—particularly constitutional amendments—to increase direct democracy and enact popular policies
Even though most of those initiatives were focused on the state level and were fulfilled after the 2020 election, the momentum started in 2018, receiving a confidence-boost for having blocked a “Red Wave” carried through the 2020 election. These additional voters that were added in 2020 are more interested in principals than parties.
In 2016, Trump had benefited from the “Anyone but Hillary” sentiment. In 2024, the Dems have whipped up the “Anyone but Trump” emotions through overreaching court cases, fabricated racial fears, perfervid nonsense about impending dictatorship, and character assassination. The natural instinct of a fighter like Trump is to sink to that level and start counterpunching.
Yet the average voter is disgusted with that playbook by both parties. We want to know specific issues and policies that will make our personal lives better and our republic stronger. For Trump to win in Michigan, he must convince swing voters that he has the best ideas to lead the country.
What Michigan swing voters should the Trump team focus on? They are not what you think… In addition to stroking the Trump base through large rallies, the Trump team needs to reach out to Michigan’s more than 610,000 manufacturing workers and more than 1.5 million seniors over age 65.
Trump needs to launch a series of media ads on television, radio, and social media, as well as local Talk Radio appearances. They must focus on “Kitchen Table Issues” that are specifically important to Michigan and not broader issues that are most appealing to the Trump base. In these ads, Trump must come off as presidential. Everyone already knows his views on America First, “Crooked Joe,” the weaponization of the judicial system, and the porous border, but what specifically is he going to do to improve the lives of those swing voters?
Michigan is a proud state. We have abundant resources, hard workers, and a rich manufacturing heritage. Michigan was the center of the Arsenal of Democracy. Had our working men and women not stepped up to manufacture bombers, tanks, gliders, trucks, engines, and other wartime supplies, we would have surely lost the Second World War.
Manufacturing workers need to hear:
- No country can remain independent and strong without a robust manufacturing base.
- Unfair trade practices have cost Michigan valuable jobs and companies
- You have lost almost 20% of your buying power due to governments’ wasteful spending and progressive initiatives.
Trump should say that these specific policies will be enacted if he retakes the White House:
- Balance the budget by eliminating wasteful spending and foreign handouts to countries that are not our friends.
- Punish unfair trade practices by China and other countries.
- Stop being policemen to the world.
The Society of Certified Senior Advisors stated on their blog,
Seniors are not a monolithic group. The oldest of the group, what is known as the Silent Generation, is more likely to be Republican, while Baby Boomers are somewhere in between the Silent Generation and the younger Millennials, who lean toward the Democratic Party. Among Baby Boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964, there are also notable differences. Boomers born in the middle (between 1950 and 1953) tend to vote more Democratic than their cohorts. The middle group came of age during the height of the Vietnam War and the battle for civil and women’s rights, as well as during the free love and drugs hippie era. Meanwhile, the youngest Boomers became adults during an economic downturn and during events that questioned the strength of the U.S. role in the world, such as the Iranian hostage crisis.
There is one topic that does unite them: earned benefit programs, namely Social Security and Medicare. Both parties have been guilty of negatively talking about these programs. Several Republicans, especially, have wrongly referred to Social Security and Medicare as “entitlement programs.”
Most seniors rightly believe that they contributed from every paycheck to Social Security which would provide them a pension like monthly stipend, which would allow them to exist as they aged. It is not a government handout. For instance, if I had taken the 6.2 percent the government took out of my paycheck and the matching employer contribution, invested it in a compounding S&P 500 fund, instead of Social Security, I would have almost $3,900,000 today. If I deposited that in a 5-percent investment, I could draw over $16,000 per month, which is far better than my estimated government payout of only $3,341.
Trump needs to promote these specific policies to make sure seniors’ future is secure:
- Balance the budget, as above.
- Make sure your hard-earned Social Security is protected against reappropriation and adequately funded for you and future generations.
Targeted, presidential messaging on these popular points will bring over the most important swing voter demographics of Michigan.
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